A lot has changed in the month of April. There have been a few events that have taken me by complete surprise, such as the rise of Dogecoin. I changed my portfolio around a little bit in the month because I wanted to explore new opportunities as they presented themselves to me. I have also come across some very good podcast episodes on which I have some thoughts to share, and recommendations to make.
Past the Halfway Point
Where are we in this current bull run? It is hard to tell sometimes, and with the month that Bitcoin has been having, you’d think we’re on the tail end of it. I was listening to a What Bitcoin Did podcast with Willy Woo1, and heard him say that we’re almost directly in the middle of the bull run. I consulted my favourite Bitcoin price model (Bitcoin Stock to Flow2), and listened to some of my favourite experts on a couple of podcasts. The general consensus is this move upwards is far from over.
The below image was shared in one of the telegram groups I am a part of. This is actually just another way of looking at the graph we were observing above. It gives us perspective by chopping up the epochs and normalizing the scale on the y-axis for the given period.
Are We in a Supercycle?
Dan Held is one of my favourite influencers in the Bitcoin space. He is the main pervader (and author) of the Bitcoin supercycle theory. He defines it as a Bitcoin cycle that is different than the ones that have come before it. Now mind you, that there have really only been two main cycles, with half of the first cycle being spent growing the base Bitcoin community and codebase. The supercycle says that this bull run could be drastically more positive than the previous bull runs.
Either there will be a much higher high, proportionate to the highs set in earlier cycles
OR
There will not be nearly as low of a low. Bitcoin has routinely felt 80% or more drawdowns in previous cycles. A supercycle would see us hit a new all time high, and stabilize the growth of Bitcoin instead of crashing.
LASTLY
It is hypothesized that a supercycle could trigger hyperbitcoinization3. This is a game theory outcome where it becomes too risky for world governments and central banks to not have Bitcoin. In this scenario, we see banks, governments, and institutions in a race to accumulate Bitcoin.
Dan Held goes into deep detail on the What Bitcoin Did podcast if you’re interested in learning more. Additionally, I recommend checking Dan’s newsletter where he has written about it extensively.
How I am Expecting Things to Change in May
The main thing I am expecting for the month of May, is for Bitcoin to break out of its pattern of trading sideways. It appears that Bitcoin has found new significant support at higher and higher lows. The lowest being 48k USD, then 52k, and now 56k. With all the bullish news we’ve been getting lately about companies buying Bitcoin, and US Banks bringing Bitcoin based services to their establishments, I think it is only a matter of time before Bitcoin breaks out of its current patterns to find new highs.
I don’t intend on picking up any new altcoins this month, mostly because I have already diversified past where I am typically comfortable in the month of April. I want to see how my April investments pan out before entering into any new positions. For the entire month of May, I will definitely be rolling any and all profits into Bitcoin while it is still at a reasonably low price compared to the expected high we will see later this year.
How My Portfolio has Changed in April
IMAGES AND CONTENT REDACTED — [ May 1st 2022 ]
A Note on Dogecoin
It was quite alarming to see Dogecoin dominate the cryptocurrency arena in the month of April. I was actually fortunate enough to be getting a bit of DOGE every single day from having participated in the Crypto.com supercharger event. It is an event wherein you get daily rewards in the coin of the month. In April, it just so happened to be DOGE.
This is aside the point, I still woke up everyday feeling pretty confused about a daily 50% increase in DOGE. My confusion and FOMO synapses were definitely firing quite frequently in April. It’s hard to watch a rise like that and not feel like you’re missing out.
I have mixed feelings about the rise in general. On the one hand, I know people are going to get totally rekt when it makes a correction. This is bad for a number of reasons.
People tend to associate all other cryptocurrencies with Bitcoin, whereas Bitcoin is its own thing, and much less volatile than the average cryptocurrency.
The people that sell large bags of Doge to crash the market will walk away massively profitable at the expense of many retail, and inexperienced investors.
On the other hand, I’ve been trying to look at this situation from a different perspective. Are there any good things that can possible come out of this Doge mania?
Many more people will be turned onto cryptocurrency, and thus will discover Bitcoin.
Many people will get wealthy from this, and use this newfound wealth to enrich their lives in whatever way they see fit. I refuse to be someone who is envious of others’ profits in the absence of my own. April has been a month of humility for me.
Podcast Recommendations
Here are some of the podcasts I tuned into this month. Be sure to check a few of them out.
Lex Fridman and Robert Breedlove on Bitcoin First Principles - MUST WATCH
Lyn Alden - The Truth About Inflation on WhatBitcoinDid
If you’re struggling to comprehend the scale and complexity of inflation, you’re not alone. I am on a never-ending quest to understand the interplay between all the many factors that go into inflation. Lyn really breaks it down in this episode. Listen in to learn about What is CPI (Consumer Price Index), PPI (Producer Price Index) and much more!
Greg Foss on the Magic Internet Money podcast talking about the Canadian Economy and the future of Bitcoin
Author of The Price of Tomorrow Jeff Booth on the Magic Internet Money Podcast
Table of Resources - Only for You
Whenever I come across a resource that helps me understand a cryptocurrency, money, and economics related concept, I record it in a table. This table is available only to you - my Private Newsletter subscribers.
There are memes, charts, podcasts, blogs, research, and much more in this resource table, and I annotate each one with my thoughts.
Use this password: v5HP7yBZAzuGVVJ to access the table here.
All The Best,
Keegan
April Portfolio Update
:)